kaulat

Tanta, one of the co-authors of Calculated Risk, has passed away from ovarian cancer . For those of you who don't read Calculated Risk--you're blowing it. Get over there right now and start learning. I can't begin to explain the wealth of knowledge I've gained from that blog, and although I can't recall how I stumbled upon it in the first place, my life and understanding of economics and real estate has benefited greatly from doing so. It was (and is) such an honor to be linked to CalculatedRisk--especially since I didn't have that many posts under my belt at the time. They apparently liked something about my writing and added me to their blogroll, which was an enormous motivator to keep writing. And yes, they link to LOTS of other blogs, but I still exude a sense of pride and accomplishment and feel honored. There are many other great economics blogs out there (some I haven't even discovered yet), but CR is the best. It's the bible of economic understan...

Lately I've noticed the bottom-calling is growing in fervor and frequency, and real estate "professionals" are becoming more aggressive with their optimism. In fact, just today my cousin sent me a newsletter from an Orange County Realtor (yep, totally unbiased source) claiming buyers waiting for a bottom in houses below $350,000 have "already missed it" and "under $250,000 there is actually a shortage of good houses to buy!" His primary justification for his sunny outlook seems to be that sales are up from last year and certain distressed properties are garnering multiple offers. One more time, for the kids in the back eating Elmer's glue: If a home is priced correctly, it will sell quickly. Duh. This isn’t mapping the human genome, people. It’s a pretty simple concept. And what this used house salesman failed to acknowledge is that an increase in homes selling at bargain bin prices does not constitute a bottom. In fact, it is an ominous sign of ju...

I've been thinking a lot lately about how we got into the mess we're in financially. Basically I know how, but not why it wasn't seen earlier enough for prevention. It was like we woke up one day and "Surprise! Make way for the Depression!" Paul Krugman's editorial talks about this today from a financial point of view. People did predict it, we heard long and loud about there being a real estate bubble, mortgages couldn't be handled the way they were, and who said we had unlimited natural resources for energy...? Dr. Krugman explained it quite elegantly: "...nobody likes a party pooper." So if looking back on history didn't help us to stay out of this mess, maybe we shouldn't do it again. Or maybe this time the nay-sayers need to shout it from the rooftops. I just want this slowdown/meltdown to not happen again. To this end I think we need to look at what we are doing right now and change things for the future. In real estate, ho...

Over at the Irvine Housing Blog Forums , Morekaos noted that a favorite delusional Belmont Shore seller has mercifully dropped their asking price by $200,000. Before you get too excited, you should acknowledge just how ridiculous their original asking price was. If you remember, this Asian-inspired oddity came on the market in August of 2007 with a distinctly WTF price of $3,250,000. In November the seller lopped off almost half a million, then increased the asking price by $200,000 just five days later. Their New Years resolution for '08 was apparently to not be such an insufferable idiot, and in February of 2008, the price was reduced to $2,785,000. And there it stayed. For nine months. So much for that resolution. But just a few days ago the asking price was reduced to $2,575,000. After 470 days on market, I think it's a meaningless gesture. I think by now, regardless of price decreases from this point forward, this property is tainted. The sellers have ably demonstr...

On this grand Thanksgiving Day I want to take time to thank the Skaneateles Chamber of Commerce for their brilliance. Whether the idea came from Sue or Candy or someone else - wow! On the front page of the local section of today's Post-Standard the headline reads Skaneateles Chamber: See 'Big Truck Parade. ' The article begins, "There will be no "Bah! Humbug!" in Skaneateles Friday." I love it! The reference is to the much-touted convoy of angry truckers who are supposedly driving into the village on Friday at the same time the Dickens' festivities begin. "Just coincidence," said their leader, but whatever. I wrote about this in my blog of November 18th entitled "Convoy." The internet version of the Post-Standard picked it up (seen thanks to a loyal friend who told me about it) and featured it with the article on www.syracuse.com . The Chamber has decided that instead of a line of women and children holding hands across G...

That didn't take long. Just two days after I reported this property perched upon leased land had gone contingent, it has been reverted back to an active listing. Buyer's cold feet? Unable to secure funding? Realtor's trick to spur interest? We'll probably never know. But it sure is fun to watch, no?

Is the glass half full or half empty? The turkey ready for leftovers or not enough to get to Sunday? We now have (only) 121 active listings in the Skaneateles area. Only three came on this week and all were re-lists of previously attempted sales. A lot or a few? There were three newly marked contingent sales. One is selling under the price the owners paid for it just a year ago, another at about 3/4 the original list price. The last dropped the list price considerably and found a buyer, but until it closes we don't know what it actually sold for (as in price.) There are still 3 waterfront homes hanging out marked contingent, waiting for a town approval or mortgage or whatever other contingency is needed. There are 9 pending properties and none new this week. One needs to be finished, as in new construction, another is a very delayed closing and three are not in Skaneateles schools but in the town and out a ways with lower prices. Going back to the newly sold (hooray!) contin...