Memories

Only a few days ago I was slagging sub-editors at The Mercury. One of them had dished up a bizarre headline suggesting million dollar properties were snubbing the real estate down turn, basically because some houses were listed for sale over a million dollars. Today, as the Tasmanian media responded to the REIT's continuing attempts at conditioning buyers to get sales flowing again, some sub-editor went a bit wild in the other direction, with the headline of...

Housing market horrors

While I'd say we're not there yet, one thing that was particularly horrible - bizarro excuses dished up by the REIT over the past few days. Adrian Kelly has been showing his bonce in newspaper and on TV, talking up overpriced homes, days on the market, bottom of cycles and how we'll be back in business, growing again in 12 months. Strangely, the guy is allowed to create his song and dance show with little analysis. He's almost becoming the Dennis Waterman, "write the theme tune, sing the theme tune," of the real estate business.

Those properties that are priced correctly are selling in a reasonable time frame, while those that are overpriced are just sitting there.

Kelly managed to get that line in (or a variant of) when speaking to the three papers and the ABC. And no one saw fit to ask if there were wider market problems. Nope, we just got the GFC on delay...

"In Tasmania, it's a bit like the GFC (global financial crisis) hit us late; it hit us probably around September of last year, August/September was when it really started," he said.

Hey did you mainland people see that thing about the planes crashing into those buildings in New York? Yeah down here in Tasmania we didn't see that on TV until just yesterday. I damn sure hope they catch the guy that did it. Apparently we'll fall for anything. Christ, maybe it was the end of stimulus flowing through and that was the thing that saved your arse in the first time.

"So we're really lagging behind what's been happening in states (sic) particularly Victoria and New South Wales.

No, dude. Stock is up around the country as sales continue to fall.

"Their real estate market started to take off again some time ago so I suspect Tasmania will follow suit."

Before that one gets away, Tasmania's real estate market is suspected to take off because Victoria and NSW have taken off? Biggest purchase of your life on a suspicion, typed up and straight to the printing press. On that 'take off' it was about 18 months ago, Adrian, try to keep up. Maybe give your buddy Enzo a call because things aren't looking as rosy as they were. Now if Adrian didn't think of the public as idiots and know the journalists he engages with are idiots, he might have admitted that Tasmania is chugging downwards into the drink with the rest of the country.

When you see a man out in public talking like this, you begin to wonder what he may have said in the past. Yes, cue the Jaws music. If you've been reading this dirty blog for a while, or you've just rolled in... and on that point, excuse the pompous segue, but I did get some mainstream props in The Monthly today...

An equally perplexing case of real estate ‘news’ was noted on the blog Tasmanian Real Estate Trouble. This blogger wrote about an article in the Advertiser that identified a young Adelaide woman as a “first-home buyer”. The woman is pictured beside a Brock Harcourts realtor’s board with a sold sticker and is quoted saying, “The great Australian dream is still achievable.” The article did not reveal that she is also an agent employed by Brock Harcourts.

Right chaps, snifter quaffed. I'm back. This is the part where current market conditions are compared to unverifiable rubbish spoken in the past, without a hint of shame. The worst market for two decades (according to sales volume), listings above the levels in the midst of the GFC and housing finance back where it was in the late 90's - this stuff doesn't happen overnight. Those awake since the beginning of 2010 should have noticed the chill slowly creep up their spine...

15 October 2010

"The demand for Tasmanian property is definitely up, but there's a bit of an undersupply at the moment," Mr Kelly said.

The baffling thing, as already noted, only six months later sales volumes hit their lowest point in two decades. 

23 January 2011

House prices have more than doubled in the past 10 years and the president of the Real Estate Institute of Tasmania, Adrian Kelly, says it's "the tip of the iceberg".

"I think Tasmania's East Coast has still got a long way to go."

At the time of this quote, stock levels on the East Coast were up nearly 50% since the GFC (the real GFC not the Adrian Kelly GFC) and they continue to rise.

Before my head explodes, it's time to take a trip back to happier times. The beginning of this blog, when the world was innocent and the only things I shouted at were the passing clouds. The first house I ever featured on this blog, back in August 2010, was this $445,500 worry from Wynyard...

The worry? It was already $4500 below the price paid in 2008. It disappeared off the market, unsold, sometime late last year. This week it made a sheepish reappearance with a $500 discount, at $445,000. Anecdotally, this isn't a one off. I've noticed several houses disappear, unsold, before recently making a reappearance. The fortunes of these vendors are worse than ever and can't improve. Not being able to sell six months ago at $445,500 means absolutely not being able to sell at $445,000 today.