Whoops

Mid-afternoon, too much coffee and my tongue thundered against the teeth on my bottom palate. It sounded like a chopper hovering inside my head, which seemed appropriate because housing finance figures were released this afternoon. Showing buyers are now like Americans at the end of the Vietnam war, riding helicopters up and away as Saigon falls. Fear for the vendors left on the ground.

In Tasmania, The Examiner reported...

Tasmania's worsening economic situation has again been highlighted with the release of home loan data for February.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, new home loans fell a whopping 13.7 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms in Tasmania in February.

You might assume I have a rock hard dong over that one, except I've always been using the original data - which was up 3.2% Jan to Feb. Ignoring that embarrassment, we'll move onto the figures which I'll argue matter a whole lot more - Tasmania now has fourteen consecutive months of sub 1000 housing finance commitments. Putting that in perspective, the last fourteen month stretch that stinky can be found (in reverse) from January 1998 to February 1999, and this was a time when over 1000 was the exception, not the rule.

You can't put Nu-Finish on this turd and expect the water to bead. January to January Tasmanian sales were off 6.3% which prompted the REIT to call for stamp duty relief because it was having an impact on the market and while I'm always sympathetic to tax relief, stamp duty didn't seem a thorn the side of buyers through the heady days of finance approvals bobbing 40-50% above where they are now.

Stock across all markets is up; while not as pronounced as other centres, Hobart is becoming a stairwell to nowhere for vendors. Month on month on month, it has continued to rise since June 10. Back in February, REIT president, Adrian Kelly, called for vendors to be reasonable with what they were asking, but expect that to fall on the ears of Helen Keller because reason won't eventuate. There's two channels when it comes to real estate - stubbornness and fear.

At first, the illiquidity makes you think you've got time to wait, then it makes you realise there's no time left because everyone clues in at the same moment - "the Smiths discounted to what? Oh hell and this has only got one bathroom."

Within minutes of acknowledging all this non-buying, the real estate peeps of course start looking for silver in the clouds and that silver is spun into a rents rising meme. That's according to The Kush at RP Data and the spastic who is now manning the twitter account at Australian Property Monitors.

Are these fools impartial data providers or cheerleaders? Specifically take note of that second comment...

Still a buyers market in Sydney and Melbourne But not for long Prices WILL rise.

Now I understand the limitations of twitter, but even being the uncouth ruffian I am, I could be slightly more nuanced than this horseshit - especially when I'm twittering on behalf of what's meant to be a respected market leader with more than 20 years in the game.

Alas, I shouldn't complain. It's these little mistakes that alert you to which data is worth a damn and which data is equivalent to the stuff Diddy needs to wash off the bottom of his shoe.