They are coming...

December's ABS housing finance stats have shown their face and despite it being Valentine's Day, there's been no roses for Tasmania. While December's figures were the best month for 2010 with 994 (seven higher than March's 987), for the first time since since 1998, Tasmania spent every month of a calendar year below 1000 housing finance commitments.

And despite the relentless crystal balling of bank economists and housing propaganda outfits, the Tasmanian first home buyer is still firmly hidden inside their shell. January 2010 remained the peak month for first home buyers with 170. December being the fifth best month, behind January, March September and April.

As we're told, the first home buyers will be returning. BIS Shrapnel who has the ear of Fairfax's Jonathon Chancellor reminded everyone back in April 2010...

BIS Shrapnel expects the first-timer numbers will start to recover in the second half of this year. 

At the time that prediction was made, with only January and February being known at the time, FHB commitments looked like this:

January: 8309
February: 8504
March: 8708
April: 7532

February and March were increases on the previous month and it's doubtful the April drop would have been obvious.They rounded out the year like this:

September: 7708
October: 7353
November: 8435
December: 8586

While the middle of the year was lower than the beginning and end, it's a stretch to believe there's any recovery in those numbers; after a fall, they're back to where they were when BIS made their prediction. Never mind, John Boy Chancellor's lazy pen was back in action as he rinsed and repeated the same prediction over the weekend...

The number of first-home buyers will slowly pick up towards normal levels by the end of the year, says Angie Zigomanis of BIS Shrapnel.

While I'm more inclined to believe the second prediction makes some sense, on what basis was the first prediction even made? The need to scare some people into action, the need to keep some industry bodies happy? As I've pointed out, I'm a moron, but even I can go back and give myself an indication of what is a possibility in such circumstances, and it's not that first home buyers would be cliff diving into the market within a year of their biggest buying incentive in history.

Apologies again for the chart, but after the Rodent government's first home bribing primer in July 2000, there was some strong volume in first home buying for basically two years. From that point, first home finance commitments sunk below 10000, every month, for 35 months. Now if you applied that reasoning to the last round of first home bribery - the time of the frenzy plus 50% - you might expect a pick up around Oct 2011 - if the market hasn't already had its scrotum torn off.

While love is in the air, I thought I'd send a kiss to Michelle Hele, Courier Mail resident spruikmeister and finalist in the REIQ's best real estate report 2010 (any reference to that has been scrubbed from the REIQ site). As many would note, Michelle had her pants pulled down when she was caught writing a report suggesting first home buyers were rolling back into Queensland. Not only were her figures a mess, she used a real estate agent as the talent, presenting him as a smiling first home buyer. Thanks for the disclosure.

The ABS stats showed that finance commitments to first home buyers in Queensland fell in December, along with all other buyers.

Try spinning that one, babe.

Update: As Jimbo points out refinancing is up, which makes some of today's bluster about strong housing finance numbers the usual 'blah blah awesome blah.' Refinancing is up, 17% in NSW and 9.8% in Victoria, not as pronounced across other states, but growth in finance seems to be coming from refinancing across the country in December. Finance commitments grew by 212 in NSW, while their refinancing grew by 783. While in WA and QLD, refinancing continued to grow as finance commitments fell.