Addicts

"Australian's deserve a lot better, especially on Melbourne Cup day." - Wayne Swan

You've really got to wonder about the brain-dead, no real world experience, "thinks they're playing West Wing" staffer, who cooked that one up for Wayne Swan. Really, who has the cheek to raise interest rates on Melbourne Cup day? Clearly it's Australia's right to gamble in peace - on horses and houses.

Cheap populism takes no courage. Wayne Swan has no courage and Joe Hockey has no courage, because the easiest scenario here is to hook into a faceless bank and continue to ignore the elephant in the room - Australians are addicted to debt. They continually mainline it into their veins, while hitting a full pipe at the same time.

And who acts as the enabler to this situation? The politicians who won't suggest fiscal responsibility. Apparently being so indebted that a rate rise could push you over the edge is someone else's fault. Where is the encouragement to not be sweating bullets on the first Tuesday of every month? Well screw that let's shift the blame to a faceless entity at every opportunity. Why should Australians have to apologise for borrowing too much and not preparing for the worst - your lack of self control isn't your fault, you truly earned that house you put 5% down on and all that other junk you own less than 25% of.

Debt servitude is a choice and the ‘working family’ has made a rod for their own back, turning their lack of restraint into a supposed god given right to debt, without any thought for the worst case scenario. You can't live like Diddy on M.C. Hammer's royalty payments, as more than one mediocre rapper has found out.

It’s become so farcical that just the prospect of a .25% rate rise brings out the populist goons, squealing like it’s a hot poker going up an anus, while Westpac cuts their savings rate 1.0% and not a creature stirs. I didn't hear the white knights, Swan and Hockey, crying foul when savers took a rigid black one square in the dumper, sans the benefit of KY.

Who would anyone squeal? No one saves any money, but that doesn't matter because loading up with monstrous debt is totally cool when you buy an asset that can't go down in value. That was until the latest round of schizophrenic housing figures appeared over the past few days. Giving the impression housing has now pitched a tent on the edge of the cliff.

And what of those figures? The market I've been pointing out as in the toilet, Burnie -acknowledged as being in the toilet by local agents, last APM figures showing it was in the toilet, well apparently it's now climbed back onto the toilet seat. Up in volume and sales up, according to the REIT.

Forgive me if I swallow the grain of salt sitting on my tongue.

At the moment housing statistics are like a bunch of mopes furiously jacking off as they await their turn at a bukkake. Some are hard, some are soft, but overall it's an odious circus of confusion and desperation. With the threat being, you might not get your chance to shine before the camera.

So while we're talking about statistics, it's time for me to repay the favour to one of my favourite blogs, who sent a whole bunch of traffic my way last week. If you want a more in depth analysis, pay him a visit, but here's some cliff notes that are worth a laugh.

I make no pretence to being an economist, nor do I understand how RP Data cooks up their statistics, but I will say Chris Joye has a physique like Arnold Schwarzenegger; is the smartest man that ever lived; women cannot get enough of him; men want to be him and there's no doubt he should be ruling the world.

So now's about the right time to introduce some RP Data stats for your consideration. Please take note of the Melbourne and Sydney prices ending June, then ending September. Have they gone up, or have they gone down?

Now check the price increase, or decrease, as a percentage for both Melbourne and Sydney in the three months to September. Have they gone up or have they gone down. Like I say I make no pretence of being anyone of any intellectual superiority, but maybe you can figure them out.

And how did the local media interpret the Tasmanian figures?

The Mercury

HOUSES are staying on the market longer as Tasmania's real estate market slows but prices have stayed relatively stable... The REIT's September-quarter property report shows house sales were down 23.2 per cent on the same time last year... Hobart's median house price rose during the quarter but it fell in Launceston by almost 5 per cent and across the North-West by 3 per cent.

Despite doing little to interpret the numbers, The Mercury thankfully took the opportunity to bypass using two sources from the real estate industry, asking the thoughts of a vendor who has had little luck selling his house.

The Examiner

THE Tasmanian housing market experienced a significant drop in sales in the September quarter, according to figures released yesterday... The Real Estate Institute of Tasmania September Quarter Property Report showed an 11.7 per cent drop in house sales for the quarter and a 23.2 per cent drop in sales compared with the 2009 September quarter.

Source? Property Consultant - "Things are now picking up."

The Advocate

Things got a little bit spruiktastic with another double page spread at The Advocate (what did I tell you). We had tales of million dollar homes being sold from millionaire to millionaire, a developer getting a generous advertorial for two $950k town houses he's trying to flog off - if only everyone else in Devonport trying to sell a $700k plus residence had such luck.

It was all topped off with a nice dollop of "sales are back to normal." (print version) Devonport agent, Alan Halliwell, was only too happy to reinterpret the last round of ABS Tasmanian Housing Finance statistics. And figures returning to lows not seen since the year 2000 was fine with him.

"In that respect, we're getting back to normal, historically accepted Tasmanian levels of activity." Halliwell said.

Does that mean we'll be getting back to normal, historically accepted Tasmanian prices? I mean they have run up nearly 350% in the last decade, shouldn't they go back where they were too?

"We certainly aren't anywhere near the troubled times of the 90's."

Thank you, Alan. I'll take your word for it.