kaulat

You have to hand it to the HIA, they really know how to rally the troops and get houses built. Sorry if you don't know what I'm talking about, but it was mid-March in WA, when the HIA offered the sobering news that a cardboard box (hopefully freezer sized) would be the home to many a Perth family by 2020.  Western Australia would be 72,500 (glad they got it down to a round number) houses short by 2020 and as it stood, they were already 17,400 short back in March.   It was clear something had to be done, and the HIA, in a benevolent act of kindness, rallied its WA members and they started putting up houses faster than a bunch of Jehovah Witnesses putting up a Kingdom Hall. Eight months later, problem solved. The Perth housing market was already oversupplied by 30 per cent, with prices sluggish. Unfortunately we also found out, courtesy of REIWA head, David Airey, this was bad news for buyers. Because in the Bizarro world of real estate, when interest rates cool things off...

Here's an oldie but goodie. In one of the maiden posts on this blog (don't forget the update ), I featured this property, sporting a mind-boggling $545,000 wishing price. That 2008 post prompted a decent amount of hate mail (including this idiot whose soaked-diaper logic I eviscerated in a response. The result? We never heard from him again). Although much has changed since 2008 (not the least of which is the disappearance of whack job bubble-deniers and wrong-headed realtors spitting their delusional venom on this blog) but what has not changed is my ability to ascertain "true values" based on the facts, the numbers, and good old fashioned common sense. At the time I said: At $454 per square foot and 260 days on market, this thing isn't going anywhere. Sometimes I get the feeling owners just aren't serious about selling. I don't care how close you are to Belmont Heights, in this zip code the median household income is $30,353. This house is probably sli...

Actually, this is the Thanksgiving edition! Happy Thanksgiving! Go make pies and devour them, chase the kids around the yard, watch out that the dog doesn't eat the gouda, and sleep in front of the fire (in the fireplace, please!) Visit with your guests and relatives, listen to them tomorrow on National Listening Day, buy the one great thing you want at half price - and enjoy your home or home-to-be dreams!

Another 150 jobs gone , the state's finances in the toilet , a Jurassic Western Australian MP calls us leeches while two uninspiring boneheads dribble out a mealy mouthed response - Sid Sidebottom  even offered up that Don Randall was a 'friend'. Thanks for the spirited defence, anyone with a modicum of backbone might have opened up a nuclear bomb on Randall, but maybe Sid really knows we're screwed and can't be bothered with the charade. Makes you proud to be Tasmanian. But we've got the most affordable capital city in the country - first home buyers can rejoice! And feel even prouder to be Tasmanian. Unless you bothered to check the figures... which reporter, Matt Smith, at The Mercury, didn't. Frankly, I don't know why Matt doesn't shut down his laptop, head north, and go and eat poo with the monkeys in the enclosure at the Launceston Park. "Oh look the HIA has sent us a press release, must breathlessly regurgitate figures for public con...

As terrible figures and anecdotal evidence mount on one side, on the other the excuse play book is being furiously scanned for any argument to calm the nerves. As auction figures continue to stink it up during the traditional kick arse spring selling season, we're now told this is actually a bad time for house sales - it's too close to Christmas, or maybe not, because someone sold a boat . Such is the dire state of the Gold Coast Bulletin. Like I've previously said, the spruikers aren't going to give up that easy, no matter how retarded they look. In fact, there's probably not a copy of Glengarry Glen Ross available in a video store across the country right now. Sales meetings are in full swing as every two-bit ex-shoe-salesman tries to perfect his best Alec Baldwin, if only to keep the lease on the BMW X5 through Christmas and maintain that shiny veneer of success to the relatives, reminding them what arseholes they are for renting. All this is a backdrop to the s...

Last night, as I watched my new favourite sitcom, "Selling Houses Australia," it really dawned on me how bad things can potentially get. It seems it's repeat week on the Lifestyle Channel at the moment, so it's a perfect time for a catch up marathon in the zany financial predicaments of Trev Beerslab (kudos to whoever thought of that name) and his long suffering wife, Sharon. Each episode has Trev completely befuddled on why his house has languished on the market for months without anything but an insulting, but highly realistic, low ball offer. Last night found Trev scratching his arse for a year with only one offer. Sure you're probably thinking, "Ol' Trev didn't need to sell so there was no rush." Au contraire, Trev had a mega mortgage on the current house, a business loan and another loan on a block he was intending to build on - with a ticking time-bomb contract. He frankly admitted business had been tough and if it wasn't for an earlier...

I had a wonderful time this Tuesday at brokers' opens. I toured with a friend and saw two new listings. When her money comes in, she promises to buy one of them - probably the gorgeous Village home. We had lunch at Joe's Pasta Garage - the pumpkin cheesecake was marvelous - and then ran through the rain to the Chamber to buy Skanopoly games before they run out. It's always fun to share the lovely Skaneateles homes, good talk, and cheesecake. Currently there are 125 active listings in the Skaneateles area of the multiple listing service. Of these, 34 are in the Village. Five "new" listings came on this week - three are actually re-lists with a musical chairs of sorts with agents, plus minimal reductions in prices. The two new ones are magnificent and priced in the upper levels - close to a million and no waterfront, just Village. The one we saw really shows what a solidly built, well-decorated home should be, with excellent use of space throughout. And the...

We have now reached that marvelous time when I can report on the third set of closed homes in Skaneateles. It took us only 79 days to get to this point from the second twenty, as compared with twice that - literally! - for the first twenty. I said in the last blog of listed homes that we were "picking up steam" - we certainly did! In order of closing, this time: 108 East Lake Road - Village of Skaneateles - $175,000 2969 East Lake Road - Town of Skaneateles - $1,475,000 2629 East Lake Road - Town of Skaneateles - $1,649,000 1014 Ten Mile Point - Town of Spafford - $140,000 54 West Genesee Street - Village of Skaneateles - $380,000 856 Franklin Street - Town of Skaneateles - $264,800 888 West Genesee Street Road - Town of Skaneateles - $88,000 843 Crow Hill Road - Mottville - $345,000 600 Irish Road - Skaneateles Falls - $110,000 2816 East Lake Road - Town of Skaneateles - $265,000 51 Fennell Street - Village of Skaneateles - $155,000 60 Jordan Street - Village of Skaneatele...

I read today on the web that there are several new trends out there in home-buying. The buyers tend to be either empty-nesters who are down-sizing, or first-time homebuyers, generally younger. In both cases they are looking for the same things: smaller homes that are within walkable distance of services and towns. It all makes sense. The suburbs are not the residences of young professionals or retired couples or singles as much as they are the neighborhoods of families. The two groups cited want to be able to walk their dogs, walk into town (or village) easily to a dinner with friends, go shopping on weekends without piling into cars. Exercise is not found at the gym as much as on the streets of their village, in company with other like-minded individuals. All you need to do to check out these theories is walk around Skaneateles on a sunny fall day. There they are - the people with their dogs, the older couples entertaining their visiting grown children, the lines at Doug's ...

If there's a piece of advice worth remembering, "don't declare victory early," is the one not to forget. I say this knowing the housing market is in decline, but the real estate spruiker has a hide thicker than ten inch beef jerky and they don't give up easily, especially not when their highly leveraged hide is on the line. If you're looking for the most accurate indication of what real estate industry arrogance is about, then look no further. Back on November 4, the Real Estate Industry of Australia issued a press release offering Wayne Swan and Joe Hockey some friendly advice on the banking sector: The decision to initiate a Senate Inquiry into aspects of the Australian banking sector is positive as the banks need to be examined regarding products offered, fees and charges and the current level of competition between bank and non-bank providers.  In addition to the Senate Inquiry, REIA notes the Opposition’s Nine Point Plan and agrees the following proposals...

Too busy! I just got off the phone with a friend I haven't seen in months. We made plans for lunch next week and both of us agreed that we had been too busy - she with family obligations, me with real estate and family also. How does it happen? The time flies by and we don't take the time for important things, like Zumba with Lisa, or walking Koko in the Village, or going to India House with Bob in the convertible. Camp isn't closed yet for the winter - the grass needs one last mowing because it had the audacity to grow some more - my database needs updating to accommodate my new buyers (wait! that's business related!) I must learn to smell the flowers - some day. Currently there are 125 active listings in the Skaneateles area of the multiple listing service waiting to be sold, so no rest here! Thirty-two of these are in the village - and I plan to sell at least one this weekend. Four new listings came on this past week, and one re-list, a pretty renovated farm...

The further I stray from my intended mission with this blog, the closer I come to totally embarrassing myself. Lately, as you may have noticed, I've blabbed about areas that some agricultural economics subjects at UQ wouldn't qualify me to talk about. So before I... meh, what mission statement? I'm more than happy to make a buffoon of myself, if that wasn't already clear. Time to draw some more long bows and continue joining ten tonne objects together with gossamer. A couple of hours ago, ANZ announced they were lifting their variable mortgage rates. Cue those guys on news.com.au who announced they were shifting their CBA mortgage last week, to announce they're shifting their ANZ mortgage today. ANZ offered one important concession to those outraged dual mortgage holders - no exit fees. Is it just me or is someone opening up the holding pen and letting the bovines loose so they can run mortgage free, or be slaughtered somewhere else? In fact, I wonder if someone kno...

That's down 3% just between September and October! Wow. And the result? A greed-driven divergence between List vs. Sold price per square foot. That's what happens when all but the dumbest, most delusional sellers take their ball and go home and wait for the market to "return to normal." Current sellers know there's no quality inventory out there and it makes them cocky and emboldened. As we enter the winter months we'll see if that approach pays off.

This morning, as Michael Vick led the Philadelphia Eagles to a 26-24 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, I marvelled at the benefits of opportunity and reform. Two years ago today, Vick was sitting in a US federal prison after being sentenced on a litany of dog fighting charges. His future looked bleak, his arse was broke, he was being vilified to high hell, animal rights activists wanted to wear Vick skin boots and there were questions if he’d ever play in the NFL again. Contrast Vick, at that time, with the average Australian mortgage holder, or even more specifically the average variable rate mortgage holder with the Commonwealth Bank. They’d just received a 58 basis point cut – leaving them with an interest rate virtually comparable to the one they have today. November 2008 – 7.74%. November 2010 – 7.81%. To better illustrate any rise or fall in interest rates, some hack will usually paint the picture of what this will do for a $300,000 mortgage. In November 2008 that mortgage hol...

Turning on the broken record that is Sky Business on the weekend, I found the forth repeat of Your Money, Your Call, hosted by that pommy guy whose head rivals Karl Pilkington’s in terms of spherical shape. With two minutes to go, his panel, suitably attired in loud shirt and tie, were asked for their final piece of advice. The one in the more garish shirt/tie combo offered the following, and I’m paraphrasing, “don’t listen to the scaremongering, if you want to buy, get into the market ASAP.” What is it about those involved in real estate, that they can’t restrain themselves? I only bring this up because late on Friday we found out the Grand Poobah of Rismark, Chris Joye, was offering a $100 million dollar bet to GMO’s Jeremy Grantham, on the direction of Australian house prices. The bet is the latest installment in a long-running war of words between Joye in Sydney and Grantham--though Grantham is yet to directly go after his rival down under. "If you actually have any convictio...

On this grey day with the rain coming down I'm reminded of winters in Seattle. It wasn't always like this, and it was nice to not wear boots and winter gear, but I missed the snow. I remember sitting with friends from North Dakota and our pining for the brilliant days of winter, when there's new snow and everything sparkles. But not yet, please! There are currently ONLY 122 active listings in the Skaneateles area of the multiple listing service. Of these, 31 are in the village. This is good news for home-sellers - fewer houses to choose from makes the choice easier for people who have to buy. Also, since the inventory is down it will take less time to deplete it - properties will move faster and be replaced by new ones. There was only one new listing in the past week, and that was a re-list of a village home, but with a $30,000 reduction. There are four new properties marked contingent. One was in the village, another has lake rights, and a third is suitable as a si...

The only thing that comes second to my distaste for the confidence game that is the real estate industry, is my pure and pathological hatred for politicians. The seething anger that I feel, combined with the acidity of the words I could spew from deep within my bile duct at the moment, would burn the pubic hair off a scrotum from ten feet away. Thanks to the treacherous, mid GFC, Rudd government policy of boosting the first home owner’s grant, which was sold by the doe-eyed, “she wouldn’t tell me a lie”, Sussex Street Snake, Tanya Plibersek, we can relive a 'Brief History of Home Ownership' with Matthew Tregent and Sarah Zajac. I won't comment on their ongoing media appearances , maybe they’re under mortgage stress, maybe they aren’t, but one thing seems clear – those boosted first home owner’s grants, when rates were at all time lows, are going to take us off a cliff. Sure, yesterday I was talking personal responsibility, but personal responsibility is one thing if you’ve ...

"Australian's deserve a lot better, especially on Melbourne Cup day." - Wayne Swan You've really got to wonder about the brain-dead, no real world experience, "thinks they're playing West Wing" staffer, who cooked that one up for Wayne Swan. Really, who has the cheek to raise interest rates on Melbourne Cup day? Clearly it's Australia's right to gamble in peace - on horses and houses. Cheap populism takes no courage. Wayne Swan has no courage and Joe Hockey has no courage, because the easiest scenario here is to hook into a faceless bank and continue to ignore the elephant in the room - Australians are addicted to debt. They continually mainline it into their veins, while hitting a full pipe at the same time. And who acts as the enabler to this situation? The politicians who won't suggest fiscal responsibility. Apparently being so indebted that a rate rise could push you over the edge is someone else's fault. Where is the encouragement to...