kaulat

Lately I've noticed the bottom-calling is growing in fervor and frequency, and real estate "professionals" are becoming more aggressive with their optimism. In fact, just today my cousin sent me a newsletter from an Orange County Realtor (yep, totally unbiased source) claiming buyers waiting for a bottom in houses below $350,000 have "already missed it" and "under $250,000 there is actually a shortage of good houses to buy!" His primary justification for his sunny outlook seems to be that sales are up from last year and certain distressed properties are garnering multiple offers. One more time, for the kids in the back eating Elmer's glue: If a home is priced correctly, it will sell quickly. Duh. This isn’t mapping the human genome, people. It’s a pretty simple concept. And what this used house salesman failed to acknowledge is that an increase in homes selling at bargain bin prices does not constitute a bottom. In fact, it is an ominous sign of ju...

I've been thinking a lot lately about how we got into the mess we're in financially. Basically I know how, but not why it wasn't seen earlier enough for prevention. It was like we woke up one day and "Surprise! Make way for the Depression!" Paul Krugman's editorial talks about this today from a financial point of view. People did predict it, we heard long and loud about there being a real estate bubble, mortgages couldn't be handled the way they were, and who said we had unlimited natural resources for energy...? Dr. Krugman explained it quite elegantly: "...nobody likes a party pooper." So if looking back on history didn't help us to stay out of this mess, maybe we shouldn't do it again. Or maybe this time the nay-sayers need to shout it from the rooftops. I just want this slowdown/meltdown to not happen again. To this end I think we need to look at what we are doing right now and change things for the future. In real estate, ho...

Over at the Irvine Housing Blog Forums , Morekaos noted that a favorite delusional Belmont Shore seller has mercifully dropped their asking price by $200,000. Before you get too excited, you should acknowledge just how ridiculous their original asking price was. If you remember, this Asian-inspired oddity came on the market in August of 2007 with a distinctly WTF price of $3,250,000. In November the seller lopped off almost half a million, then increased the asking price by $200,000 just five days later. Their New Years resolution for '08 was apparently to not be such an insufferable idiot, and in February of 2008, the price was reduced to $2,785,000. And there it stayed. For nine months. So much for that resolution. But just a few days ago the asking price was reduced to $2,575,000. After 470 days on market, I think it's a meaningless gesture. I think by now, regardless of price decreases from this point forward, this property is tainted. The sellers have ably demonstr...

On this grand Thanksgiving Day I want to take time to thank the Skaneateles Chamber of Commerce for their brilliance. Whether the idea came from Sue or Candy or someone else - wow! On the front page of the local section of today's Post-Standard the headline reads Skaneateles Chamber: See 'Big Truck Parade. ' The article begins, "There will be no "Bah! Humbug!" in Skaneateles Friday." I love it! The reference is to the much-touted convoy of angry truckers who are supposedly driving into the village on Friday at the same time the Dickens' festivities begin. "Just coincidence," said their leader, but whatever. I wrote about this in my blog of November 18th entitled "Convoy." The internet version of the Post-Standard picked it up (seen thanks to a loyal friend who told me about it) and featured it with the article on www.syracuse.com . The Chamber has decided that instead of a line of women and children holding hands across G...

That didn't take long. Just two days after I reported this property perched upon leased land had gone contingent, it has been reverted back to an active listing. Buyer's cold feet? Unable to secure funding? Realtor's trick to spur interest? We'll probably never know. But it sure is fun to watch, no?

Is the glass half full or half empty? The turkey ready for leftovers or not enough to get to Sunday? We now have (only) 121 active listings in the Skaneateles area. Only three came on this week and all were re-lists of previously attempted sales. A lot or a few? There were three newly marked contingent sales. One is selling under the price the owners paid for it just a year ago, another at about 3/4 the original list price. The last dropped the list price considerably and found a buyer, but until it closes we don't know what it actually sold for (as in price.) There are still 3 waterfront homes hanging out marked contingent, waiting for a town approval or mortgage or whatever other contingency is needed. There are 9 pending properties and none new this week. One needs to be finished, as in new construction, another is a very delayed closing and three are not in Skaneateles schools but in the town and out a ways with lower prices. Going back to the newly sold (hooray!) contin...

In the comments section of Pricing Problems , Anonymous says: "Retard, the one listed for 300,000 is a short sale. You can't compare the two." Wow. I haven't heard that tired argument for quite some time. I thought that misguided thinking gave up the ghost in 2007. There is some debate about this topic, no doubt. And every situation is different. In a normal market, one isolated distressed sale should not be considered a comp for an entire area. Doing so would be foolish. But you also need to remember this is not a normal market. In fact, foreclosures now account for 40% of all LA County sales . Are you arguing those distressed sales shouldn't "count" as comps? Anonymous (if that is your real name), please enlighten us. I'm genuinely curious as to how you convinced yourself short sales, which are only approved when banks determine market value has been met (or did you think they just arbitrarily threw darts?), should be completely ignored as compara...

This condo I featured last week, perched upon leased land, has gone contingent. As you know by now, going contingent and actually making it out of escrow are completely different animals. Nevertheless, for now it appears their dramatic price cutting efforts have paid off. Nice work.

Address: 207 E Broadway #301, 90802 Asking Price: $553,000 Size: 1 beds, 2 baths, 1310 sq. ft. (built in 1925) $/Sq. Ft.: $422 HOA Fee: $327 MLS#: S537137 On Redfin: 153 days Down Payment: $110,600 Monthly Payment: $3,700 Income Requirement: $158,000 Description: SHORT SALE APPROVED AT $553,000! Well, considering it was priced $4,000 cheaper for 150 days AND STILL FAILED TO GARNER ANY BUYING INTEREST...best of luck with that!

Interesting stuff I've dug up. Now what does it mean? More later..... Just the facts: there are currently 122 active listings in the Skaneateles area. Two new ones came on this week, one is a re-list and the other prime village waterfront for under one million. Not so bad! There are only 3 properties marked contingent and 11 still pending. We now have 51 closed properties year-to-date with 2 new ones this week. One was waterfront in the 2 million dollar range, and the other was a home in the town, but just over the village line. Both showed reductions in the original price, but both had other compensating factors. To date there are 16 waterfront closings out of the 51. Last year there were 89 closed properties with 19 of them being waterfront. As I've said all along, waterfront is still selling, certainly at a faster rate than non-waterfront. I decided to look at another factor, in part because I was researching the facts for a conclusion on a home I want to sell. Last year by...

The morning paper caused a very spirited discussion at the breakfast table. We have to do something to keep warm now that the snow is here, I guess. On the front page there was an article about a trucking association which is planning a demonstration in Skaneateles on November 28th, the kick-off of our annual Dickens celebration (and shopping spree.) Supposedly 400 trucks will drive down Route 20 and arrive in the middle of the village just in time for the opening ceremonies at the Sherwood Inn. The protest concerns the Governor's (and others) attempt to ban truck traffic in Skaneateles that is just passing through on its way south or north. The trucks currently jump off the Thruway at Weedsport and careen (my word - guess which side I'm on!) down the back country roads to arrive in Skaneateles at the light on State and Genesee (aka Routes 321 and 20). They turn left, go up to the light at East Lake Road and fly down the lake to Homer where they pick up Route 81 and contin...

I've been watching this property (with amazement) since the inception of this blog, but have never featured it before. The primary reason is that it's not polite to make fun of the mentally retarded. You see, this apartment has spent 622 days on the market with absolutely no interest--yet during that time the price has only been reduced twice. And despite racking up more than 20 months on the MLS, those price reductions have totalled less than 4%. Yep, that sales strategy can only be explained by a seller with severe mental deficiencies. Address: 1401 E 3rd St #15, 90802 Asking Price: $490,000 Size: 2 beds, 2 baths, 1220 sq. ft. (built in 1964) $/Sq. Ft.: $402 HOA Fee: $262 (That seems awfully high considering the lack of amenities) Purchase price: N/A Purchase date: N/A MLS#: K706733 On Redfin: 622 days Down Payment: $98,000 Monthly Payment: $3,200 Income Requirement (3.5X income = realistic mortgage amount): $112,000 Description: THE DIPLOMAT, 2BEDROOM, 2BATH TOP FLOOR PREMI...

The call came in at 8:45. "The house is going to be finished today, furniture and people come tomorrow. If you want to see it, come today!" The voice belonged to John MacDonald, a builder with his partner, Patrick McCarthy, of spectacular homes. They've done cottages before - concrete walls, specially designed windows, shake siding with their own green clapboard. Lovely homes that live in the trees. In Oswego. The day of course was cold and blustery with snow in the air. Not the day to drive 40 miles one way, all north. Intrepid Janet had to work, the dogs were unreliable, Bob was at my aunt's finishing a job, but I had to go. Ice or no ice! Neither wind nor rain......the houses they build are that special. This one was more so, about 5,000 sf of "moreso." I came up the 800 foot drive to a sea of contractors' vans and the rear of the house and wandered in. John said hello and made a dump run, giving me over to Patrick. The first room I entered...

According to this MSNBC article , home sellers are in denial about their house's value. Wait, really? Thanks mainstream media for bringing this to our attention! Here is the lede: The housing market may have gone bust, but many homeowners are still living in a bubble. Despite dismal housing headlines and reports showing falling prices nationwide, owners in some once-hot areas still believe their home is gaining value or at least holding its own. And by hanging onto too-high expectations, sellers are unwittingly keeping the market from finding a bottom. No shit, Sherlock. You got a team of monkeys working around the clock on that one, do ya? Any reader of this blog, or any housing bubble blog for that matter, have been aware of the greed and delusion of ignorant loanowners for quite some time. And although the mainstream media is a little late to the party, at least they brought some good scotch. The article goes on to explore an actual loanowner who finally saw the light and priced...

You've heard it all before, but I assure you things are moving again! I had an open house this weekend. Same house - 3802 Knightsbridge - as a month ago. Turnout was dismal then, but this time I was busy throughout the two hours. And then just as I was packing up a couple showed up and we went off to see another home for comparison's sake. The agent of that home said it had a real offer on it - after almost two years and many reductions. The next day lovely 11 Onondaga was shown twice, and one family was looking because their home had just sold! There are the same number of listings - 129 - active in the computer for the Skaneateles area as last week. Two fell away somehow and were replaced by (1) a re-list of a waterfront property in the 2M range, now reduced by 10% which seems to be the magic number and (2) a re-list in the mid$300,000s in the town. There were no new "sales" as in contingent sales, and only 1 new closing. This was a village 2 (yes, 2!) bedr...

Reader Rebecca kindly provided an update on this incredibly overpriced loft : I just read this entry, in November, and was curious to see what happened: http://www.redfin.com/CA/Long-Beach/1100-E-3rd-St-90802/unit-201/home/8181476. Maybe you've updated elsewhere, but if not, you'll be happy to know that your prediction came true-it's now bank-owned. Unfortunately, they didn't get the memo about pricing... In July I said: I'll say it again: The ONLY way to determine the value of any investment is to run calculations based on fundamentals. That's it. And what do those rent vs. buy fundamentals tell us? Based on nearby rents of similarly sized lofts, this gloomy gus would not even begin to make financial sense until the price reached $299,000. Which do you think will happen first? That 60%-plus total price reduction or this flipper walking away? Well, I guess we got our answer. After almost a year rotting on the market at unrealistic prices the bank has, as I pre...

I know this update is a day later than usual, but yesterday was not a usual day. We elected a President. I am still in awe of the process and the numbers that turned out, both voters and in that Chicago Park. We watched MSNBC most of the night, so I don't know what everyone else saw, but Jesse Jackson's face with tears streaming down said it all. On to real estate, which I firmly believe will pick up now that the election and uncertainty are over. I've had three calls already this Wednesday morning for showings on my listings! There are currently only - I love saying only - 129 listings in the Skaneateles area marked as active. Last week there were 137 so some have fallen off or been rented or simply withdrawn for the winter. There have been 13 withdrawals this past month which seems high to me. The 2 new listings are interesting for what they say about the economy and the expectations of the sellers. Both are village re-lists. One came down $20,000 or the 10% I su...

This is just getting depressing. Remember those two wild and craaaazy guys at 5585 E. PCH ? Well, after failing miserably in their attempts to scare buyers into overpaying for their condo, using realtor garbage like "won't last" and "HURRY!", now they're threatening to take their ball and go home. "LAST CHANCE BEFORE OWNERS CONVERT IT TO A RENTAL!!" My response is, who gives a shit ? Go ahead, convert it to a rental and bleed cash every month for the next 20 years, what the fuck do we care? In fact, at 117 days on the market, I think they're morons for not doing that from the start. Why waste everyone's time at $350 per square foot if you were just going to convert it into a negative-cashflowing debt trap anyway? They were holding out hope for a Greater Fool to pay their wishing price, I suppose. Address: 5585 E Pacific Coast Hwy #154, 90804 New Asking Price: $299,900 Year Built: 1970 Size: 2 beds, 2 bath, 913 sq. ft. $/Sq. Ft.: $328 HOA Fe...

Cool, eh? A high resolution photo can be found here .

Let's cut right to the chase here: Days on Market: 442 days . If 90 DOM is the scarlet number, then what would you call 442 ? I can think of a few things: Pathetic, mind-boggling, evidence of brain damage, worthy of ridicule, a Schadenfreude swimming pool..I could go on. Here are the vital stats: Address: 680 Grand Ave #103, 90814 Asking Price: $299,999 Size: 2 beds, 2 baths, 855 sq. ft. (built in 1986) $/Sq. Ft.: $351 Purchase price: $360,000 Purchase date: 12/2005 Down Payment: $59,999 Monthly Payment: $2,000 Income Requirement: $75,000 MLS#: P595441 On Redfin: 442 days Description: Beautiful 2 bedroom 2 fully upgraded 1st floor condo with pergo floor and gas fireplace in living room. Ceramic tile in kitchen, baths and balcony. Master bedroom with private bathroom and large closet. The Grand Villa is a secured property with spa and workout freeways and Downtown Long Beach. The VA Hospital and Cal State Long Beach as well. Wait, this place is "fully upgraded"? Really? Ar...

Last year I wrote about the wild boars that roamed the southeast end of Skaneateles Lake. It was hard to believe that these great monsters could be out there in the hills. On Friday, I believe, one was shot and killed, his picture in the Sports section of the Syracuse Post-Standard. All 270 pounds of him! And he was taken not on the south end of the lake, but on the west side just two miles from the village. No! Yes! The farmer chased him down Hencoop (there are a couple lovely homes for sale on the road, by the way...) and finally did him in with his third shot. Hencoop! These piggies grow to be 400 pounds. Since they're wild, I bet they don't like to be harassed. The DEC requests politely that you don't harass these babies because they are trying to catch them and relocate them. Relocate where? And who is out there making their lives miserable? We have a friend who thinks he saw one crossing Franklin Street Road where it intersects with County Line. It wasn...

What a wonderful day! I left the house at 10:30 to make the rounds wearing gloves and my favorite fall coat. I bought the coat years ago in Saratoga, waiting until the price dropped so I could afford it. I remembered another fall day when I wore it. Alex was 7 and we had gone overboard on Halloween that year. He wanted to be Garfield, so together we created a papier mache head and tiger costume for him. It was grand! I was teaching in an alternative high school and one of my students decided I didn't seem scary enough for Halloween so she teased my long hair and then sprayed it to stand up straight. Why not? It was the spirit of the day that mattered. I went to help out at Alex's school with the parade and party. A camera crew was there from the station in Albany and they loved Alex, following him around all afternoon. Of course in the parade the oversized Garfield head fell off and he uttered a word they promptly cut out of the news segment. Another time he fell - c...